Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks, and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the hometown New York Jets. Be sure to check out our Seattle Seahawks preview.
New York Jets (125/1 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 4-13, 4th in AFC East
All engines running, we are cleared for take-off.
This is the year for the New York football Jets. Perhaps not to win the Super Bowl (125/1 odds), but time to take a profound leap forward.
Zach Wilson will fall in love once more — this time with his new weapons, WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall. But wait, there is more.
Heralded as one of the best-performing college football corners in NCAAF Divison 1 history, Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner was the apple of the Jets’ eye throughout the draft process. As the fourth first-round cornerback drafted by the Jets in the 21st century, the Jets hope that Gardner is more Darrelle Revis than Kyle Wilson and Dee Milliner.
The Jets have drafted well in their last two offseasons. Now it is time to put it all together.
Jets offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, departures
- Drafted: CIN CB Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner (No. 4), Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson (No. 10), Florida State DE Jermaine Johnson (No. 26), Iowa State RB Breece Hall (No. 36), Ohio State TE Jeremy Ruckert (No. 101)
- Additions: DE Solomon Thomas, DE Jacob Martin, TE Tyler Conklin, S Jordan Whitehead, CB D.J. Reed, TE C.J. Uzomah, G Laken Tomlinson, K Greg Zuerlein
- Departures: S Marcus Maye (Saints), LB Jarrad Davis (Lions), WR Jamison Crowder (Bills), RT Morgan Moses (Ravens), RG Greg Van Roten (Bills), WR Keenan Cole (Raiders)
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Jets 2022 schedule
Week 1: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 2: at Cleveland Browns
Week 3: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 5: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 6: at Green Bay Packers
Week 7: at Denver Broncos
Week 8: vs. New England Patriots
Week 9: vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: at New England Patriots
Week 12: vs. Chicago Bears
Week 13: at Minnesota Vikings
Week 14: at Buffalo Bills
Week 15: vs. Detroit Lions
Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 17: at Seattle Seahawks
Week 18: at Miami Dolphins
NFL betting lines: Jets win total O/U
5.5 wins (FanDuel)
After only putting together four wins last season, the Jets have valiantly worked to improve their roster. A clear showing that the Jets are all-in: GM Joe Douglas tried and failed to trade an armoire of draft picks for Tyreek Hill.
Currently, their win total is set at 5.5 this season, so asking for just two more wins is a very reasonable ask given their roster upgrades.
Winning just four games last season and a very young roster throughout, it is feasible that the Jets struggle early on this season. Their early schedule isn’t very comforting either, and an 0-3 start is entirely possible.
In fact, the Jets have the 27th most difficult schedule in the NFL, according to Warren Sharp’s Sharp Football Analysis. They use advanced calculations (which include travel time, matchup, rest, and many other factors) to give an accurate reading of how difficult each team’s schedule is.
Overall, 5.5 wins is a very reasonable expectation for this upcoming season, but that early season schedule is a legitimate concern. The glass-half-full perspective is that the early gauntlet could turn them into a young battle-tested group.
With that, the Jets can be projected as favorites or near favorites against the Bears, Lions, Jaguars, and Seahawks. Moreover, the Jets should be able to win one or two divisional games this season.
This doesn’t include any upsets, like when the Jets defeated the Bengals as 11-point favorites on Halloween last season.
Back the Jets to go over their win total and swallow the juice over -175. The Jets’ best-case scenario this season is a borderline playoff team.
Jets O/U 5.5 wins: The pick
Over 5.5 -175 (Caesars)
Betting on the NFL?
Expert best bets, futures, and props
Zach Wilson ‘over’ 20.5 passing touchdowns -112 (FanDuel)
Jets alternate win total: ‘over’ 6.5 wins +170 (Caesars)
The Jets will go where Zach Wilson takes them, and projecting that year two leap from him isn’t much of a hot-take. The Jets are giving him everything he needs to succeed, including new weapons and some offensive-line help.
The Jets’ offensive line was actually improving significantly last season, too. Pro Football Focus had the Jets line ranked 11th in the NFL without left tackle Makhi Becton. George Fant had a rating of 71.1 as the left tackle, and center Connor McGovern rated 75.8.
New guard Laken Tomlinson should slot in at guard for Greg Van Roten, who departed for the division rival Bills. He was also rated 75.9, so if he can replicate his season last year with the 49ers, he will be a top lineman for this unit.
The offensive line improvement with the upgrades on the outside, at tight end, and in the backfield should spell a lead forward for the Jets signal caller. Betting ‘over’ 20.5 passing touchdowns is a very fair expectation.
As a rookie, Wilson only threw nine touchdowns in 13 games. Health plays a significant role in these bets, so be sure to bet with caution.
However, the only healthy-ish starting quarterbacks to throw under 20 touchdown passes last year were run-first signal caller Jalen Hurts (16), Teddy Bridgewater (18 in 14 starts), Jared Goff (19 in 14 starts), Tua Tagovailoa (16 in 12 starts), Davis Mills (16 in 11 starts), and fellow rookie Trevor Lawrence (12).
Look for the Jets’ Wilson in the backend of fantasy football drafts, season-long props, and weekly player prop bets going forward.