The first full slate of MLB games after the All-Star break returns on Friday, and one matchup stands out for a best bet.
We’re taking Milwaukee on the runline (-1.5 runs) against visiting Colorado. Essentially, the Rockies are going up against Corbin Burnes on the road, where they are statistically worse in a lot of meaningful metrics. Their batting average drops from .287 to .233. Their on-base percentage drops from 0.352 to .292 and their slugging percentage sees a massive decline from 0.464 to 0.340, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Even though they’ve won five of their last seven games overall, the Rockies are 4-9 in their last 13 road contests.
In nine home starts this season, Burnes is allowing an opponent batting average of only .249 and a slugging percentage of only .343. Burnes is also striking out almost three more batters per nine innings and has allowed a slugging percentage of only .182 in July.
Dating back to last season, the Brewers are 7-2 straight up at home against sub-.500 NL sides. With tonight’s runline close to even money, I’ll back them to cruise past the Rockies.
The play: Brewers runline (-1.5 runs).